Presidential debate: ‘With COVID-19 surging…it’s not going to be possible to ignore it and move forward’

Associate professor of history; director of the Latina/o Studies Program; affiliated with the Center for Native American and Indigenous Research

Cadava is an expert on the Latino vote and immigration.

• g-cadava@northwestern.edu

“Immigration has been a focal point for Trump, from his comments about Mexican immigrants on the campaign trail, to the Muslim ban, efforts to limit legal migration, family separations at the border, and his temporary suspension of various visa programs. He even erased the ‘nation of immigrants’ language from government web sites! I’m really hoping that the final debate will be the moment when Trump will have to take responsibility for his support of these policies, and that Biden will have to make clear how his approach will be different and better, not only for immigrants, but also the United States writ large.

“In many ways, Trump and Biden couldn’t offer two more different visions of our national identity and inclusiveness as a country. Most generally, I think the differences of the candidates and their parties on issues of race reveal a nation wrestling with the fact and meaning of demographic change; how we continue to hurdle toward majority-minority status, and how or whether that’ll change American character.” 

Cadava's latest book is “The Hispanic Republican: The Shaping of American Political Identity, from Nixon to Trump.”

Associate professor of political science; director of the Center for the Study of Diversity and Democracy

Tillery's research and teaching interests are in the fields of American politics and political theory. His research focuses on American political development, racial and ethnic politics and media and politics.

• (847) 467-4697
• alvin.tillery@northwestern.edu

“Although the polls in some battleground states like Pennsylvania are tightening, Joe Biden still maintains a clear lead overall and is even stretching the map by forcing Mr. Trump to visit places like Arizona to stay competitive. In this context, Mr. Trump’s performance in the upcoming presidential debate will be a make-or-break moment for him. He performed abysmally in the first debate and lost the ratings face-off with Mr. Biden in their dueling townhalls on network television. This will be Mr. Trump’s last chance to convince the voters that he can behave like a president and have real answers to their questions about COVID-19, the economy and race relations.” 

Professor of political science at Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences

Hurd's research on international law and politics combines contemporary global affairs with attention to the conceptual frames that serve to make sense of the world.

• (847) 491-4847
• ianhurd@northwestern.edu

“Polls show that Americans are eager for more stable leadership, and the next U.S. president has a golden opportunity to launch a new era in American foreign policy around new values and goals. In place of the Trump administration’s drift and self-dealing, the new President can re-activate the considerable resources of American diplomacy to improve the long-term health and welfare of Americans. This will likely mean reducing military spending and lightening the American footprint around the world, improving global taxation to reduce corruption and tax evasion, and investing in health agencies to contain the virus and rebuild society. The pandemic crisis is compounded by the incompetence of the White House. The new president will have a broad popular mandate to move boldly toward a stable and sober assessment of America’s foreign policy needs and will find ready partners among governments and activists around the world.”

Hurd is the author of “How to Do Things with International Law” and “After Anarchy,” and co-editor of the “Oxford Handbook of International Organizations” (Oxford 2017) and “The UN Security Council and the Politics of International Authority” (Routledge 2008). 

Clinical associate professor of management and organizations from the Kellogg School of Management

Clinical Professor of Management and Organizations

• (847)-467-3468
• n-pearce@kellogg.northwestern.edu

“The COVID-19 pandemic is not only a public health crisis — it is a moral crisis as well. Leadership — especially in times of profound uncertainty and volatility — is perhaps best understood as the work of shepherding. Shepherds are not only concerned with the care of the sheep but also the well-being of the entire flock. At this moment, the U.S. presidency would best be in the hands of a leader who exhibits moral clarity and integrity, possesses the instinct to bring diverse people together to form a more inclusive and equitable nation, and ultimately, will govern in such a way that promotes the well-being of the nation in terms of both the significant public health and economic challenges brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Pearce is also an assistant pastor of Chicago's Apostolic Church of God and the author of “The Purpose Path: A Guide to Pursuing Your Authentic Life's Work.”

Mary Harris Thompson Professor and vice chair of preventive medicine; professor of medicine in pulmonary and critical care at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine

Carnethon is an epidemiologist and expert in the spread of infectious diseases.

• (312) 503-4479
• carnethon@northwestern.edu

"It is understandable that any presidential candidate wants to demonstrate expertise in a broad range of issues, and the continued focus on COVID doesn’t allow President Trump or Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden to discuss a vision on other critical issues in the U.S.

“However, COVID-19 is affecting every single aspect of American life, from our economic stability to military readiness, and with COVID-19 surging right now as we enter the winter, it’s not going to be possible to ignore it and move forward. New critical concerns have come up around the types of 'return to semi-normal' that we should be prioritizing right now, including ensuring the safety of carrying out K-12 education and higher education safely in person. Returning to in-person K-12 instruction will allow for a faster recovery of the economy because parents can work. However, it is not safe to do so in communities where cases are surging. On a national level, we need policies that can help to contain the spread while we await a vaccine so that we can take the baby steps needed to return to a semi-normal."

Carnethon testified virtually before the U.S. Senate this summer to help senators better understand COVID-19's racial health disparities among seniors and identify meaningful solutions. 

Owen L. Coon Endowed Professor of Policy Analysis and Communication; director of the Center for Communication and Public Policy in Northwestern’s School of Communication

Nisbet research lies at the intersection of communication, public opinion and public policy in the areas of science, technology and environmental policy. He also studies governance and elections, and international security.

• erik.nisbet@northwestern.edu

“Biden has some cleaning up to do in the upcoming debate around the topic of the so-called ‘Green New Deal.’ In the last debate he left some confusion in voter’s minds on whether he supports it or opposes it — and did not clearly differentiate it from his own clean energy and environmental plan. Rhetorically, his campaign portrays the ‘Green New Deal’ as a ‘framework’ but does not embrace its specifics.   

“This confusion, whether intentional or unintentional, is a reflection of Biden’s attempts to navigate this contentious issue as he is attacked from both the left and the right. The ‘Green New Deal,’ as envisioned by Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has been weaponized as socialism at its worst by Trump as a means to alienate moderate voters from the Democrats. On the left, Biden is attacked as not being aggressive enough on climate change and economic inequality by not embracing the ‘Green New Deal’ fully.    

“In reality, from a pure policy perspective, the ‘Green New Deal’ as envisioned by AOC and Sanders is incredibly politically divisive. And, in the end, the political pursuit of the utopian vision specified by the ‘Green New Deal’ may be as harmful to addressing climate change as Trump’s denialism of the problem itself. Biden will be buffeted by both these two extreme visions of how to move forward on tackling climate change on Thursday night.” 

Assistant professor of earth and planetary sciences at Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences

Horton is the principal investigator of the Climate Change Research Group.

• (847) 467-6185
• daniel.horton@northwestern.edu

“Climate change is a global problem that requires local solutions enacted within a framework of international cooperation and commitment. From a security perspective, the impacts of human-caused climate change are often viewed as threat multipliers, working to exacerbate already dangerous geo-political conditions. The effects of climate change — such as worsening droughts, floods, heatwaves and tropical storms — touch on many aspects of life that are fundamental to societal peace and prosperity. Climate change is a problem that requires global leadership, and the lack of leadership threatens not only the world standing of the U.S., but also the security and well-being of citizens everywhere.” 

Faculty director of Northwestern’s master’s in data science program

Miller is a data science expert and an election forecaster.

• thomas-miller-0@northwestern.edu

“In the weeks following the vice-presidential debate, some people started talking about a democratic landslide. But our forecast shows a new, general trend in the direction of Donald Trump gaining on Joe Biden’s lead. If Trump performs well in the second presidential debate, then the race will tighten even further. Using our hourly forecasting model, we will see the effect of the debate on the election prospects of Biden and Trump, and we will see it within a couple hours.”

Miller runs The Virtual Tout, which provides hourly predictions using data from the betting market.

Payson S. Wild Professor of political science in the Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences; member of the University’s Institute for Policy Research

Druckman's research focuses on political preference formation and communication.

• druckman@northwestern.edu

“I expect continued focus on the nature of electoral procedures and the legitimacy of the election. Given mail-in ballots are largely skewed in the Democratic direction, thanks partially to greater worry about COVID among Democrats, Trump is incentivized to call them into question. This not only is unfortunate in terms of de-mobilization, but it also sets the stage for a contested election outcome.”

Druckman is also part of the university consortium conducting the 50-State COVID-19 surveys at covidstates.org.