Experts available on provisions in Trump’s big budget bill

EVANSTON, Ill. --- Senate Republicans, with a tie-breaking vote by Vice President Vance have passed President Trump’s ambitious budget bill, in an attempt to deliver it to his desk by the July 4 holiday. Sticking points include significant cuts to Medicaid and the SNAP food assistance program, as well as an estimated $3 trillion increase in the national debt.

Political science and economics professors from Northwestern University are available to discuss aspects of the bill, including the no taxes on tips policy, as well as why legislators may be fearful of bipartisan compromise.

Political scientist Daniel Galvin on eliminating taxes on tips:

“In the short term, eliminating taxes on tips would boost low-wage workers’ take-home pay. In the long term, however, such a policy could further entrench tip-based compensation models, which a great deal of research has shown are deeply biased against women, people of color and immigrants. We know that tipped workers are twice as likely to report experiencing sexual harassment as those earning regular wages (including 80 to 90% of female restaurant workers) and that people of color are tipped significantly less than white workers despite working the same exact job. Policies that reinforce tip-based compensation models, moreover, simply shift wage responsibility from the employer to the customer while creating greater opportunities for ‘low-road’ employers to commit wage theft and payroll fraud.

“The proposal would also shrink the federal government’s tax base and undermine critical payroll-funded safety net programs that all workers depend on, including Social Security, Medicare, disability insurance and unemployment insurance. Finally, the proposed policy would further divide workers across sectors (retail workers, for example, will still have to pay taxes on their income) and undermine their collective bargaining power. So, it’s an idea that may sound good but would likely have many negative effects.”

Galvin is a professor of political science, a faculty fellow at the Institute for Policy Research and director of the Workplace Justice Lab at Northwestern. His most recent book is “Alt-Labor and the New Politics of Workers’ Rights” (2024, Russell Sage Foundation). He can be reached at galvin@northwestern.edu.

Political scientist Laurel Harbridge-Yong on partisanship and compromise:

“In an era where primary elections are often the most important elections legislators in partisan strongholds face, legislators have incentives to side with the preferences of the primary electorate. Legislators increasingly worry that breaking with the party base will draw a primary challenger, and they believe that the primary electorate opposes compromises on major legislation. These dynamics make compromise difficult and make it challenging for legislators to break with their party, even when they know most constituents oppose the legislation.”

Harbridge-Yong is a professor of political science and associate director of the Institute for Policy Research at Northwestern. Her most recent book is “Rejecting Compromise: Legislators’ Fear of Primary Voters.” She can be reached at l-harbridge@northwestern.edu.

Northwestern University health economist Lindsay Allen on cuts to Medicaid and SNAP:

“Healthy, well-fed citizens are our strongest workforce asset. Removing Medicaid and SNAP benefits from millions of Americans doesn’t promote economic growth, it derails it. When people can’t afford basic care or groceries, employers lose reliable employees, and communities lose the resilience needed to thrive.

“We often hear that tougher requirements and budget cuts weed out those who don’t ‘deserve’ support. But data show the vast majority of SNAP and Medicaid recipients are working families, seniors and people with disabilities. Penalizing them for systemic barriers beyond their control will only increase hospitalizations, emergency food needs and taxpayer costs down the line.

“If someone thinks people deserve to suffer simply because they’re poor, consider this: Cutting Medicaid and SNAP will punish millions of hardworking Americans working overtime and side jobs just to keep food on the table. Most people with Medicaid and SNAP are working already, and due to increased red tape from the new bill, they’ll be the ones most impacted by this.”

Allen is an assistant professor of emergency medicine at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine. She evaluates state policies’ effects on health care access, quality and outcomes, focusing on marginalized populations. She can be reached at lindsay.allen@northwestern.edu.

Economist Mark Witte is available to comment on changes to federal tax revenue and energy tax credits. Witte is a professor of instruction and director of the undergraduate program in economics at Northwestern.  He can be reached at mwitte@northwestern.edu.