Newsom recall will test GOP theory that Latinos are becoming more conservative

EVANSTON, Ill. – Geraldo Cadava, a history professor at Northwestern University and author of “The Hispanic Republican,” said he wouldn’t be surprised if the election to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom works, amid evidence of an uptick in Latino support for Trump in 2020.

Cadava is a professor of history and Wender-Lewis Teaching and Research Professor at Northwestern’s Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences. A specialist in political and policy history, his research focuses on Latinos in the United States and the U.S. Mexico borderlands. He is the author of “The Hispanic Republican: The Shaping of an American Political Identity from Nixon to Trump.” He can be reached at g-cadava@northwestern.edu or by contacting Stephanie Kulke in media relations at stephanie.kulke@northwestern.edu.

Quote from Professor Cadava
“There is no reason that Gavin Newsom should lose, but if he does, it’ll be because Republican voters are more motivated to oust him than Democratic voters are to keep him. Low Democratic turnout should be the only thing that would stop him from winning.  

“That said, this recall is the first chance since November 2020, when Trump surprised many by doing better among Latinos (and African Americans and Asian Americans) than expected, to test the Republican theory that Latinos are becoming more conservative. Trump won 22 percent of the Latino vote in California last November, compared with 16 percent of the Latino vote in 2016. Larry Elder, the leading Republican candidate to replace Newsome, has spent a considerable amount of time talking with Latinos and Asian Americans, precisely because of this uptick in Latino support for Trump. I wouldn’t be surprised if it works.”