Election ‘will not be a landslide’ for Democrats
Forecasting expert on how the debate might affect election outcome
EVANSTON, Ill. — Northwestern University data scientist Thomas Miller says the U.S. presidential race is getting tight.
Miller runs The Virtual Tout, a novel forecasting platform that updates the odds of a win by President Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden each hour. With this level of precision, he can see how single events — such as Thursday night’s debate — might affect the potential outcome of the election.
Miller is the faculty director of the master’s in data science program at Northwestern. Viewers can follow his hourly predictions, in which he uses market data, via Data Science Quarterly or on Twitter. He can be reached directly at thomas-miller-0@northwestern.edu.
Quote from Professor Miller:
“There has been a downward trend in forecasted electoral votes for the Democratic ticket since the vice-presidential debate on Oct. 7. The second presidential debate, which according to our model appeared to be a draw, did little to change this trend. A similar trend is seen in the forecasted probability of winning.
“Many people have suggested an upcoming landslide in favor of the Democrats. My most recent forecast for the election gives the Biden-Harris ticket 302 electoral votes. That is not a landslide. One or two states moving away from Biden-Harris and toward Trump-Pence could change the results of the election.”