Will online conventions produce a rally in the polls for the candidates?

“Without the in-person festive atmosphere of the traditional conventions, it is unclear if the conventions will produce a rally in the polls for either candidate, or how effective the conventions will be at transmitting the candidate’s message to the public,” said Northwestern University political scientist Laurel Harbridge-Yong.

In addition to Harbridge-Yong, Northwestern political science professors Jaime Dominguez and Alvin Tilleryand history professor Geraldo Cadava are available to comment on next week’s Democratic National Convention and the Republican National Convention the following week. 

Geraldo Cadava is an associate professor of history in the Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences. He focuses on Latinos in the United States and the U.S.-Mexico borderlands. Cadava is the author of the new book “The Hispanic Republican: The Shaping of an American Political Identity, from Nixon to Trump.” He can be reached at g-cadava@northwestern.edu.

Quote from Professor Cadava
“Historically, the conventions have been the official beginning of Hispanic outreach campaigns, a race to the finish line that includes Hispanic Heritage Month, from September 15 to October 15. Over the years, Hispanics — both Democrats and Republicans — have felt this is too late. They’ve argued that you can’t expect to win over voters if you only reach out to them in the final weeks and months of a race. 

“In this sense, the Biden campaign is at a distinct disadvantage and will have to cover a lot of ground quickly. They’ve already announced Spanish-language ad campaigns in critical battleground states, and that’s a start. But during the convention and after, he’ll have to really engage Latinos and speak to them about the issues they care about. In some ways, the Trump campaign has an advantage, because they’ve been courting Latinos in their own way for the past four years, and officially launched their Latinos for Trump campaign a year ago.”

Jaime Dominguez is an assistant professor of instruction in the department of political science. His teaching and research focus on race and ethnicity, immigration, urban politics, Latino politics and Chicago politics. He can be reached at j-dominguez@northwestern.edu. 

Quote from Professor Dominguez
“The convention will give the Democrats the opportunity to lay out a clear policy platform that runs counter to the White House. The focus will be on addressing the pandemic and how to give a jolt to the economy. In addition, it gives the VP pick -- Sen. Kamala Harris -- the stage to show how she will partner with Joe Biden to create an effective governing coalition if elected to office.”

Laurel Harbridge-Yong is an associate professor of political science and a faculty fellow with the University’s Institute for Policy Research. Her teaching and research focus on partisan conflict and the lack of bipartisan agreement in American politics. Her most recent book, “Rejecting Compromise: Legislators’ Fear of Primary Voters,” (Cambridge University Press, 2020) examines how legislators’ perceptions of primary voters is an obstacle to legislative compromise and examines what types of reforms can increase compromise. She can be reached at 
l-harbridge@northwestern.edu.

Quote from Professor Harbridge-Yong
“Without the in-person festive atmosphere of the traditional conventions, it is unclear if the conventions will produce a rally in the polls for either candidate, or how effective the conventions will be at transmitting the candidate’s message to the public. As the challenger, the lack of convention activities may hurt Biden more than it hurts Trump, who has been using his daily briefings as de facto campaign events.”

Alvin Tillery is an associate professor of political science and director of the University’s Center for the Study of Diversity and Democracy (CSDD). His research and teaching interests are in the fields of American politics and political theory. His research in American politics focuses on American political development, racial and ethnic politics and media and politics. He can be reached at alvin.tillery@northwestern.edu.

Quote from Professor Tillery
“As the 2020 presidential campaign moves into convention mode, we really have no idea what to expect. Since the Democrats have been running a largely cyber-campaign since the spring, I suspect that they will be well-positioned to package and deliver content. The outstanding question is: Will anyone watch in this format? If the people do watch and contribute online, the 2020 pandemic could likely spell the end of the traditional convention system.”