Trump has not made a strong case for why voters of color should vote for him, says political scientist

EVANSTON, Ill. --- Northwestern University professors in the fields of political science, communications, psychology and management discuss what they will be watching for during the Republican National Convention, which will take place Monday, July 15 through Thursday, July 18 in Milwaukee.

Political science

“Mr. Trump has not made a strong case for why voters of color should consider voting for him.” -- Political scientist Alvin B. Tillery Jr.

“Pollsters on both sides of the partisan divide recognize that the 2024 presidential election will come down to which party can make inroads with low-propensity voters in Black and Brown communities. Despite Mr. Trump’s showing in the debate, he has not made a strong case for why voters of color should consider voting for him in 2024. His reference to immigrants ‘coming for Black jobs’ provoked widespread mockery on social media in the days following the debate. Moreover, Taraji P. Henson’s negative reference to Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation’s blueprint for a second Trump administration, during her stint hosting the BET Awards has put Mr. Trump on the defensive with minority communities. I will be watching to see what Mr. Trump does in Milwaukee to try to gain traction with these voters. Perhaps the most important open question is: Will Mr. Trump select one of his stalwart surrogates like Tim Scott or Byron Donalds to be his running mate?”

Alvin B. Tillery Jr. is a professor of political science and Black studies at Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences and director of the Center for the Study of Diversity and Democracy at Northwestern. He can be reached at alvin.tillery@northwestern.edu. 

“An important objective of the RNC convention will be to show party unity and cohesiveness.” – Political scientist Jaime Dominguez

“An important objective of the RNC convention will be to show party unity and cohesiveness as it pertains to Project 2025 and Trump’s pick for vice president. Social issues such as immigration and abortion will be front and center. There is no doubt that tough border policies, public safety measures and the crackdown on migrants will be positively received by the GOP base and supported by the delegates. Expect a lot of discussion around tax policy including proposals to deal with the elephant in the room—inflation and the high cost of living. And Trump will champion that he is the one responsible for the Supreme Court’s most recent decisions surrounding reproductive rights and presidential immunity. And, if given another chance, he will continue to move the Court further to the right.”

Jaime Dominguez is an associate professor of instruction in the department of political science at Northwestern. His research focuses on race and ethnicity, immigration, urban politics and Latino politics. He can be reached at j-dominguez@northwestern.edu.

Psychology

“Trump will be all about winning now and very little about what happens next.” – Psychology professor Dan P. McAdams

“Regarding the psychology of Donald Trump, my thesis has long been that Mr. Trump lives outside of time, with very little understanding and awareness of the past and the future. He is ‘the episodic man,’ living in the present moment and fighting with all his might to win each moment, day by day, year by year. He does whatever needs to be done, and thinks whatever needs to be thought, to win the moment. For nearly anybody else entering what history and precedent say will be his last presidential nominating convention, the time might call for thinking about legacy, about what a president might seek to leave behind to future generations, about how a president might expect to be seen in the long run of history. 

“But Trump does not think that way, and he will not talk that way at the convention. It will, instead, be all about winning now (and bashing his opponents), and very little about what happens next, except to invoke the make-America-great-again slogan. And, depending on his health and circumstances, Trump will take the same frame of mind forward for the next four years, if indeed he does win in November, and he will seek to position himself for yet another term in office in 2028 — the 22nd Amendment be damned — or do whatever needs to be done at that time to continue to win.”  

Dan P. McAdams is the Henry Wade Rogers Professor of Psychology and a professor of human development and social policy at Northwestern, and one of the nation’s foremost researchers in the field of narrative psychology. He also is the author of “The Strange Case of Donald J. Trump: A Psychological Reckoning.” He can be reached at dmca@northwestern.edu.

Communications

“This is the Biden campaign’s worst nightmare.” – Communications and polling expert Erik Nisbet

“The Republican National Committee Convention in Milwaukee will be a huge ‘split screen moment’ for America — but not the one the Biden campaign had originally envisioned. The RNC convention was an opportunity (as was the recent debate) for the Biden campaign to solidify support among Democrats and woo independents by highlighting the extremist elements in the Republican party and its unpopular policy positions and remind people why they hate Donald Trump.

“Instead, Americans will see one party coronating their presidential nominee who enjoys overwhelming and fervent support from party elite and everyday members alike, while the other party is experiencing a rebellion within their own ranks as most Americans — including most Democrats — want their nominee, who is well behind in the key battleground polls, to drop out. This is the Biden campaign’s worst nightmare.” 

Erik Nisbet is the Owen L. Coon Professor of Policy Analysis & Communication and director of the Center for Communication and Public Policy at Northwestern University. He can be reached at erik.nisbet@northwestern.edu.

Management

Harry M. Jansen Kraemer, Jr. is a clinical professor of leadership at Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern and an executive partner with Madison Dearborn Partners, a private equity firm based in Chicago. His areas of expertise are values-based leadership, values-based legacy and management strategy. He can be reached at h-kraemer@kellogg.northwestern.edu.

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