Mega Millions jackpot: Statistics expert available

EVANSTON, Ill. — As the Mega Millions jackpot soared to an estimated $1.55 billion, many Americans are waiting in anticipation for tomorrow night’s lottery drawing.

Northwestern University statistics expert Barry L. Nelson is available to comment on how lotteries work, the odds of winning and clever ways to avoid splitting the jackpot with other potential winners.

Nelson is the Walter P. Murphy Professor of Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences at Northwestern’s McCormick School of Engineering. An expert in probability and statistics, Nelson creates statistical tools to estimate risk and error in both real-world and simulated data. In his research, he also develops computer simulations of various systems — including financial, transportation and health care systems — to quantify and manage risk.

Quotes from Professor Nelson: 

“Players should remember that the little balls in the hopper are blissfully unaware of the size of the jackpot, so the jackpot size has no impact on your 1 in 303 million odds of winning. If you are going to play, then avoid numbers that others might pick, such as combinations that look like dates or times. This doesn’t change your 1 in 303 million odds of winning, but it does reduce your chances of having to split the pot if you do.

“Someone might try to tell you to buy a ticket because your ‘expanded value’ — which is the average amount you will win minus the cost of the $2 ticket — is over $3. That is true. But tell them that it also is true that your chance of losing the whole $2 is about 96%. Fight math with math! Do your chances of winning the jackpot increase if you buy 10 tickets? Yes, but so does the amount of money that you will almost certainly lose.”